Monday, August 24, 2009

When will things start looking up? How will you know?











So there's lots of chatter about hints of recovery in many economic indicators. Maybe we've reached a turning point?

Let's look at some of the data.


  • New home sales up 9.6% between June and July. (Sales of existing homes also up, 7.2%)
  • Consumer confidence, especially expectation of where we'll be in six months, rose in August to the highest level since December 2007.
  • Orders of durable goods rose for third time in four months in July (up 4.9%), beating consensus estimates
  • Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke told a financial conference that the economy is on the verge of growing again.
  • Second quarter Gross Domestic Product declined "only" one percent, much less than expected
  • First-time filings for state unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 570,000 last week, marking the first drop in initial claims in awhile
Many scoff at this optimism, and for every positive data point it's easy to produce one to show the glass is half-empty. Caution is completely understandable and warranted.

But what does this mean for philanthropy? For your organization, in particular: How will you know when it's over? What indicators are you looking for? Average gift creeping back up? Direct response rates returning to "normal"? Corporate contacts no longer ducking your calls and interested in talking to you about sponsorships? Top investors willing to visit? To stay ahead of the curve, what signs are you monitoring to know when recovery is at hand? Or will you miss those signals?

To challenge you, I ask: What will you do first when you see those early indicators? What new practices will you roll out? What new initiatives will you pursue?

And then I will pose the most challenging question: What are you waiting for?

If you have a plan in mind for when things get better, what really is preventing you from going ahead and making those intentions a reality now? If that idea or strategy or tactic will be a good idea at some future "better time," I can almost guarantee you that it's a great idea now.

If there's any way to do so, get ahead of the curve. Implement those plans now.